Personal
Portfolio
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Guess where I'm going next month......
February
was not a bad month all in all and cleanup was the main focus of the
portfolio. I got rid of CIM and replaced it with the better
quality CXS. HollyFrontier was sold the proceeds were used to buy a
little more DOW, a position in Staples and a few more shares of Amazon.
Nice to see those banks making a slow, steady comeback
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Personal Portfolio
Boy this is a great way to end the month.
This
moron would virtually triple the tax rates on dividends,
further devastating the ability of those retired to
generate an income from the dividends they depend on.
A man of the people??????? No friggin' way.
Our
grand experiment in electing a teleprompter to the highest office
in the land is an abysmal failure and a serious change needs to result
from the coming elections.
And as to Mr Buffet,
he needs to keep his pie hole shut. If he doesn't think
he's paying enough in taxes then I assume he still knows what a check
book is. Jeesh.
DOOMSDAY
I don't of what significance 2012 is to the prophets of doom, but boy are they getting cranked up.
It
is interesting that if you look a little closer at just who these
people are, you find they all have a vested interest in selling doom
and this comes in the form of:
> Books
> Advice
> Gold
> Annuities
> Redirecting your Rollover 401K and other retirement accounts.
And.....if you look even closer, why they all know each other.
Imagine that!
Me, I think I will stick with people I respect who actually physically crunch the numbers using real data.
I don't believe there is much value in forecasting trends based on phases of the moon, biblical prophecy or the price of gold.
Fear and Negativity sells product and I suspect that's what the doom sayers are really trying to do.
So what does one do about the price of oil?
1. Vote out the current administration.
2. Perhaps pick up a company that has oil in the ground, preferably in the US to use as a bit of a hedge.
I
originally thought the refiners were the more attractive out of the
group and in that I was partially right, in that the refiners in my
view were under valued. I was right, insofar as HollyFrontier was
concerned.
Marathon oil is a company not without its problems, especially with its holdings outside of the US.
Add to that missing the usual dividend declaration date, spinning of MPC and the stock really got a haircut.
Everything
else I think looks pretty good and considering the price of oil and the
relatively low PE of the stock, I figure it's worth 2.5% of the
portfolio and at the purchase price of $34.68 on a dip this
morning, I think it's worth the investment. I rather highly
doubt the 'religion of peace' over there in the Mideast is going to
show much brotherly love anytime soon.
And how about that Huntsman (HUN)....
Huntsman
continues to impress and I think a contribution to the run-up in stock
price is Jon Huntsman getting back to the business of running the
company and not running for the presidency.
The stock recently went over 5% of the portfolio, again, but I think I will let it run for a while longer before scaling back.
It's
sure be nice to see the price over 21.00 again. I could use some
more fence work and there's a power line I'd like to bury.
02-28
Office
Depot reported earnings this morning and to everyone's amazement, the
company actually went into the black. The stock jumped nicely,
but personally I'd stay away from this one.
However.....
Staples
(SPLS) is reporting tomorrow (02-29) and they are getting a bit of a
bump from Office Depot. I'm picking up some shares today,
thinking that the profit picture just might be rosier than the prophets
of doom think.
The company is priced reasonably and does seem to
be recovering. Their stores are clean and their inventory is decent
enough that I occasionally browse the store myself. I even buy
something on the odd occasion.
It'd be nice to see them pick up where HollyFrontier left off, portfolio speaking.
02-29
Well,
you win some and you lose some. Staples came in line with
estimates and the stock got creamed. I think this is worth
holding on to for a while anyway.
No real bad numbers or anything, but nothing overly impressive either.
Current Allocations
 | This looks a little better, I think. I'd like to get the banks
whittled down to a smaller percentage over time. It doesn't help
matters when one sees BofA dropping to six and change. That was just
too tempting.
The
real estate allocation could also be upped a bit because there's a lot
of real estate buying going on and some of the larger companies I like
are scooping up properties. I'm more interested in the paper
holding REITs, rather than the physical property itself and I think
more of a weighting there would be beneficial.
Energy.....the sector is so volatile anymore that a minor weighting works best for what I want.
Being
overweight in banks, telecom, raw materials and food at this juncture
should be extremely beneficial should the political landscape make an
extreme right turn later on this year.
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 | NEW MONTHLY FEATURE: THE PROPHET WATCH
What we have here is CNBC's prophet, seer, revelator - and major PITA. Detailed Opinion Here
Financial Analyst - NOT
Soothsayer - NOT
Bearer of Practical Financial Opinion - Occasional
Man's Worst Nightmare - Maybe......
Having to listen to annuity pitches interspersed with vitamin infomercials could be worse.
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Let's keep track of just how well this PITA's 'predictions' pan out for the rest of the year.
| 2012 |
Predicted |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
| Gold |
$2,000.00 |
1736.7 |
1716.28 |
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| Recession |
60%
Chance |
Nope! |
Nope! |
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| TIPS
Current 5yr Yield |
Home
Run - Maybe |
0.95% |
0.90% |
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The Forgotten Man - another great reason to vote out the current administration ASAP. Here is the Full Sized Image
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