Market
Timing Update
My Guru says that we are in the middle of a market correction.
No Big Surprise there.
It is somewhat similar to other corrections in presidential mid-term
off-presidential election years and is a normal occurrence
within the context
of an ongoing bull market.
He expects to see substantial additional gains which should carry the
market to new recovery highs in the mid 1300's for the S&P.
He views S&P 500 levels of 1250 or lower as
attractive entry points for
the investment of any new monies.
Economic Cycle
Rate of Growth Moderating
Low Inflation
Monetary Growth Anemic
Monetary Policy
50% Chance of Another Interest Rate Hike
Foundation of an Economic Slowdown is Firmly in
Place
High Oil Prices are Counter Inflationary.
They drain discretionary money
from the consumer pocket
book.
Valuation
The S&P 500 Index is undervalued at a P/E
of 15.8. A fair value would
be in the range of
17 - 18
Sentiment
The contrary indicator, the 60-Day Put/Call ratio
has risen to record levels.
The Wall of Worry dominates investor
sentiment.
That is a good thing (I think).
Current Worries:
Inflation Worries
could cause the Fed to Over Tighten
Higher
Oil Prices
Recession
Mideast all out
brawl.
Iraq
Civil War
Major
Hurricane Season
Summary
Buy on Market Weakness.
Other
No portfolio changes were called for.
My Guru is still a happy camper